- Keep going; it doesn't look that deep.
- Stop! It looks muddy and your tires are going to get stuck.
- See those rocks and grass tufts poking up? You could probably hopscotch across those carrying your bike.
I dismounted to try that third path, grabbing the bike frame under the down tube and hosting the seat over my shoulder. My first steps proved sure from one flat rock to a grassy micro-island; my confidence bubbled, not ready for the next unreliable rock -- which sunk under my weight and tilted. The stiff sole of my right bike shoe skidded into the cold flow. Utterly off balance, I let the bicycle go as I tipped forward. I ended up elbow deep in the water, hands braced in sucking muck, saving me from a full-flopped swim.
I picked up myself and my bicycle and slopped to the other side, ruing the wet worst-case outcome of my choice. That data I factored into subsequent crossings where I tromped right through the water, soaking my feet and nothing else.